With six months to go to the elections, political parties in Mexico are ready to start their campaign. The PRI is still on the forefront, but is their victory inevitable? In the next few days Voic of Mexico will look into the chances of the three main contenders. We start of with the PRD and their candidate Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador.
Unity, unity, unity. It’s the one word that should define the campaign of PRD-candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) for the months to come. The PRD, currently a distant third in the race for the presidency in July, appears to fight a lost battle from the beginning, but not all that not glitters is lead.
When AMLO won the battle against his less polemic and more liberal opponent Marcelo Ebrard for the left’s candidacy, many argued it was the wrong choice. True enough, AMLO has some serious problems: the majority of Mexicans know him better than any other candidate, but no one has a higher degree of ‘negative popularity’ than the former government leader of the Federal District. AMLO was largely responsible for the divisions in his own party in recent years and left a bad aftertaste with many Mexicans after his defeat in 2006, his famous ‘to hell with the institutions’ and the occupation of Mexico City.
His credentials as a democrat have been doubtful too. He consistently played his own party by refusing to give up his membership, while showering the PRD-leadership with ultimatum after ultimatum, refusing to accept any democratic process that would not result in his favor.
However, something has changed in recent weeks.
AMLO has toned down his rhetoric, while beefing his PR-efforts with sectors that matter. Those most fearful of him, small- and medium sized entrepreneurs, were reached out to recently by an AMLO who reassured them that he poses no threat to businesses. And to be fair: ideologically he never did. His radical image was never based on a supposed communist/socialist ideology or anything or the sort, but rather on his polemic way of communicating and his constant attacks on the ‘chuchos’, those within the PRD who would rather side with Ebrard and whom he considered bigger political enemies after Jesús Ortega’s election as party president than even the PAN.
His relationship with the party cadre seems to be improving quickly, at least in the eye of the public. He was photographed this week with party president Zambrano, who isn’t exactly his best friend, and when Miguel Ángel Mancera was chosen as the PRD’s candidate to run for government leader of the Federal District earlier this month, AMLO hardly interfered openly in the process.
Right now mr. López Obrador seems to be working diligently to rid himself of his negative image, trying to get even the biggest enemies within the PRD ranks behind him and focusing on doing away with the most persistent negative elements of his image. He wants to convince the electorate that he is a reasonable candidate with a moderate leftist agenda, who is in touch with less fortunate but poses no threat to the middle class. The last weeks have been surprisingly devoid of polemic comments or anything that could be used against him by the PRI and their golden boy Enrique Peña Nieto.
Those are all smart moves by AMLO, who knows he has much to win and everything to lose. It is vital for AMLO to get as many middle class votes as possible, to strengthen his ties with struggling Mexicans looking for real change in the country and change his image from troublemaker to respectable social-democrat who poses a real alternative to the current PAN-government and the return of the PRI.
The fact that he made no PR-slipups recently also work in his favor. AMLO may not be as refined as Carlos Fuentes or Denise Dresser, but he certainly managed to stay out of the trouble Peña Nieto got himself into at, for example, the recent Guadalajara book fair. I have stated before that I do not believe such mistakes will do much to hurt Peña Nieto’s chances the presidency, but if AMLO manages to steer clear of anything that could label him ‘dangerous’ or ‘stupid’, he might be able to use that to his advantage during debates and such, winning some votes in the process.
Now that the PRI has broken with Elba Esther Gordillo’s PANAL party, the PRI seems to have lost some momentum and appears to be more vulnerable than assumed before. The change in PRI-leadership after Humberto Moreira’s disgraceful exit (and the failure of the PRI's alliance with PANAL, which was designed principally by the same Moreira), Peña Nieto’s PR-mistakes and the fact that the PRD seems to regain strength in Mexico City have dented the PRI’s confidence a little.
AMLO can use this to his advantage, but viciously attacking the PRI would not be the best strategy. His opponents could use that against him to reaffirm his image as a ‘danger to Mexico’, which was one of the principal reasons many middle class Mexicans were scared of the scenario of AMLO as president.
It would be much smarter for him to revitalize his public persona and show the electorate that he is a firm but reasonable leftist. Judging from what we’ve seen in recent weeks he seems to be doing exactly that.
AMLO also knows that this is his last chance to shine. If he crashes and burns he will take the left with him, ruining all chances he has for political prominence after the elections. But losing isn’t a disaster for him per se. If he manages to beef up support in a sufficiently impressive way, he may not prevent Peña Nieto from winning, but he could re-establish confidence in the left. Convincingly overtaking the PAN would be a good start.
The best way to do so is by showing the world he matters again. And the best way to make himself matter is by uniting the PRD, becoming once again the figurehead of the left and convincing the middle class that he’s not a scary or dangerous radical.
He seems to be on the right track. His chances to win are still slim to none, but the elections are still six months off. Peña Nieto has been peaking early and already lost a little of his shiny appeal. Sounds familiar? AMLO peaked early as well in 2006 and eventually lost against Calderón, who was a dark horse for much of the race. And while Peña Nieto is slowly discovering that simply being the PRI-candidate alone isn’t necessarily a winning strategy, AMLO is in a wholly different ballgame right now.
Just as VoM- and MexFiles writer Richard Grabman I will refrain from predicting, but I do believe that, if AMLO keeps doing what he’s doing right now, the race might be much closer than we thought. Close enough to make a few people in the PRI nervous anyway, which is a moral victory by any standard.