Early last year I had a long interview with Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon, the outgoing governmental leader of the Federal District, more colloquially known as the mayor of Mexico City (though technically there is no such position anymore). Inevitably we landed on the political future of the nation’s capital. When asked if he has any fears of the PRD losing its long time bastion of power to the PRI or PAN, mr. Ebrard answered decisively: “No. The Federal District is perredista and will remain so.”
Mr. Ebrard’s confidence seemed a little out of place at the time, as the PRD was losing election after election, only capable of staying in government when entering in an alliance with arch-enemy PAN and leftist fringe parties, as was the case in Oaxaca. Even more troublesome were the polls: they indicated a dropping popularity of the left and rising figures of the PRI and even the PAN in the Federal District. The first commentators already predicted the PRD taking a fall in the DF’s 2012 elections, which would effectively mean a death-stroke to the Mexican left.
That was then, this is now.
Back in 2011 it was still unclear who would be the candidate for the PRD in the DF elections. The PRI already had their pick: Beatriz Paredes, former leader of the party and well known amongst the electorate. She is a strong candidate with powerful friends and a well-oiled political machine to back her up. She has been a candidate before and also gains from the so-called ‘Peña factor’, the nationwide popularity of PRI-presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto.
And then the PAN, an underdog, nominated human rights activist Miranda de Wallace as their bid for the second most coveted governmental position in the country. Mrs. De Wallace is an attractive candidate because of her impeccable career and reputation for integrity. She has sought justice for the murder of her son for years and certainly has the moral high ground on her side.
To fight those two candidates will be a tough job in any scenario. The PRD’s answer is Miguel Ángel Mancera, former attorney-general of the Federal District. Not a bad choice, considering his image as an energetic and honest combatant in the fight against bureaucracy and corruption. He also has an excellent academic resume and certainly knows his way around the government in the capital, not to mention the fact that he has the support of the most important factions in the party. The fact that he isn’t actually a member of the PRD gives him a much needed air of independence in an environment where party politics are increasingly unpopular amongst the electorate.
Mancera’s election was chaotic in the usual PRD-sense. Alejandra Barrales, who was mr. Mancera’s principal opponent, withdrew from the election in the last moment claiming ‘irregularities’. There was no real election to begin with: as is becoming regular process in the PRD, the candidate was chosen through a poll. The PRD has a knack for making internal elections look like sad display of lack of unity. Mr. Ebrard was blamed for the problems, but the dust over the elections seems to have settled and the campaigns can now begin.
Winning the elections will be hard for the PRD, but they do seem to have regained some ground lost in the polls over the last few years. Mrs. Paredes may have the Peña factor on her side, mr. Mancera has the generally good governmental record of mr. Ebrard’s administration to show for.
Besides, poll numbers for the PRD have picked up now that Mancera has been chosen candidate. One of the reasons Paredes was riding a wave of popularity earlier, was partly because the other parties had yet to choose their pick. Now both rivals have good candidates, and the PRI even runs the risk of ending third.
46-year old Mancera is the favorite to winning the elections this year, but he’ll have his work cut out for him. For the PRI, winning the Federal District is their political Everest in a year where they have much to win, but perhaps even more to lose. Despite some serious PR-slipups, Enrique Peña Nieto still rides high in the polls. Since their powerful comeback in 2009 the PRI has won almost everything, more often than not with a vengeance. PRI-bulwarks Puebla and Oaxaca were lost to a grand coalition, but their most cherished prize, Estado de México, was held intact last summer with such a show of force that the party currently commands an air of invulnerability. Other states were taken back from their opponents.
The importance for the PRI of winning the Federal District can therefore not be underestimated. Everybody loves a winner, and mr. Peña Nieto can afford some stupidities such as his recent monumental verbal vomit at Guadalajara’s book fair, as long as his party seems indestructible. Not to mention the fact that taking DF would mean a final blow to the PRD. The recent victory streak has made the PRI cocky. Judging from comments made by Paredes herself the party is counting already on winning the capital.
Should they lose, however, then they could lose their Teflon-image. This could not only revive the PRD and strengthen the confidence of the PAN, it could also seriously damage mr. Peña Nieto’s chances of becoming president. In recent polls the most likely PAN-candidate for the presidency, former education secretary Josefina Vázquez Mota, is already creeping very slowly upwards.
The PRI will do everything in its vast power to win this summer. They simply cannot afford to lose, as it would be a serious dent in their reconquista of power in Mexico. On the other hand, the PAN has never been a likely winner of the Federal District, but their choice for mrs. De Wallace has been excellent. The conservatives have nothing to lose, as no one is counting on them to win anyway. That makes them a dangerous underdog.
The PRD are still the favorites to win, and their choice of candidate has been promising. But holding the fort will be difficult. Everybody likes a winner, but nobody likes a loser. The PRD’s internal struggles, their choice for a presidential candidate who is both popular and hated and their seemingly endless series of electoral losses (Michoacán being perhaps the most dramatic one) have made the party fragile.
Mancera will have to drive one hell of a campaign. He must show the capitalinos that the capital city has indeed become a better place thanks to six years of good government under Ebrard. His is the difficult task to show Mexico that the left is still alive and kicking, that it is still a legitimate choice after so many setbacks since 2006. If he can get his poll numbers up and running, the PRD might even profit from it for the presidential elections.
In comparison to early 2011, things are looking up for the PRD with regard to the Federal District. They have a competitive candidate and a more than reasonable chance to win. A recent poll places mr. Mancera comfortably ahead of his two competitors at 36%, whereas mrs. De Wallace and mrs. Paredes both command 23%.
However, seven months is a long time and Mr. Ebrard’s confidence in winning still needs to be proven. But by electing mr. Mancera, the PRD seems to have chosen well. The Federal District may well remain a leftist bastion for six more years.